We Measure Our School Systems the Wrong Way

Which means no one is accountable for what really matters

We’re living through an education depression that’s lasted more than a decade - and counting. Last month, I promised to share some ideas for how we can end it.

We’re Living Through an Education Depression

Let’s start with a basic question: When we send our little ones to school, what are our hopes for them?

I doubt your answer is “kick-ass test scores!”

That’s because parents aren’t maximizers for achievement. Our goal isn’t to win fourth grade. Communities don’t think that way, either.

School is a part of raising children. An important part, yes. But just a part. Along with myriad other supports and experiences, strong schools produce students who thrive when they become adults.

Yet, when we talk about whether our schools are doing a good job, we rarely focus on the adults they help create. I find that strange.

After all, this is where the symptoms of our education depression are most evident. We are struggling to produce capable, independent, worldly young people who can succeed in all the right ways.

Today’s 20-somethings are more likely to live with their parents and less likely to live with a spouse, partner, or roommate than past generations.¹ They’re saddled with piles of student debt. They are very online. Probably because they socialize in-person less often, they suffer from what our Surgeon General calls “an epidemic of loneliness and isolation.” Companies are hiring coaches to teach employees how to dress professionally, make eye contact, and greet people - things they once learned as teenagers working the register at McDonald’s.

Patterns have changed particularly for men. In 1980, 85 percent of 25 year-old males worked full-time. In 2021, it was just 71 percent.² Fewer men in the workforce has meant that fewer of them are financially independent. Which exacerbates estrangement and anger.

Outside of elites who are still benefitting from the modern economy, the signs of struggle are everywhere.

This should surprise us. After all, educational attainment is up. Nearly 9 in 10 students graduate high school. Even among low income students, the figure is 80 percent. These are huge improvements from a few decades ago. And haven’t we been told endlessly that education and life success go hand-in-hand?

Not so much, these days. We have achieved more education (on paper) and less readiness for the real world. It’s been a hollow win.

Where did we go wrong?

One of our biggest mistakes has been focusing on the wrong goals. We set the finish line too early. The transition to adulthood now takes longer than it did 100 years ago when we made high school graduation the essential rite of passage. A young person’s education is not complete until they are ready to function independently in the real world. At this point, a high school diploma doesn’t come close to meeting that standard.

It’s time for a major correction. We should define the success of our education system based on outcomes for 25 year-olds, not 18 year-olds.

As Raj Chetty and his colleagues have shown through big data projects, elementary education has “large effects” on kids later lives. But neighborhoods matter, too. As do social connection and civic participation. Our objective is opportunity. When we focus too narrowly on short term indicators, we end up holding schools too accountable and not accountable enough.

The patron saint of failure to launch. If Billy Madison can graduate high school, maybe it’s not the best definition of completing one’s education.

Why high school graduation is a bad way to measure school systems

Our primary federal education law, passed in 2015, places zero emphasis on what happens to students after high school. In exchange for federal funding, states need to do certain things - such as test students in reading and math each year from grade 3 through 8 - and they must develop systems for monitoring the quality of schools. High school graduation rate is a mandatory indicator.

But the law is unconcerned with higher education. Districts are free to set a low bar for earning a high school diploma, which makes them look successful. If few students succeed in college because they are totally unprepared for the work, the districts can (and do) blame colleges. It’s not their problem. Out of their hands.

This is bonkers. It might have made sense in days of yore when the vast majority of American students did not finish high school and it was a legit proxy for academic accomplishment. That’s far from the case now. Graduation just means you showed up till the end.³

By capping the responsibility of K-12 systems at the end of high school, we give them a free pass for the dismal life outcomes many students - particularly those from less privileged backgrounds - are experiencing in their 20s.

The singular importance of high school graduation leads schools to make counterproductive decisions. Chronic absenteeism is a prime example.

It’s common in our sector to argue that “punitive” measures - like banning participation in extracurriculars on days kids don’t attend school or limiting the time allowed to submit make-up work - are not effective in getting students to attend consistently. The only sound approach, folks say, is to extol the positive virtues of showing up. I think that’s incorrect, as plenty of schools have reported clear improvements after adopting tough love.

But even if we concede that punitive strategies can go too far, why would we teach sophomores, via lenient policies, that showing up is optional? Are they going to earn a good living a decade later doing jobs where they can no-show 20 to 30 percent of the time without getting fired?

The same policies that might “work” in the short term for maximizing high school graduation cement habits that are making our young adults unemployable… and in need of coaches to teach them how to say hello.

What should we do instead?

We need an integrated youth development strategy that starts at birth and ends in early adulthood. As cohorts reach age 25, we should measure and report on the degree to which each community - and its schools, along with other systems - produce young people with positive results on dimensions such as:

• Educational attainment. Associate’s, bachelor’s, and graduate degrees. High quality credentials, too. We should be thinking about varied pathways. A young person with none of the above faces high economic risk.

• Employment. Not just a job, but a living wage that supports living somewhere besides your parents’ basement.

• Civic engagement. Voter registration. Bonus points for serving the public through the military or programs like AmeriCorps. We teach social studies to prepare citizens, right? What’s our measure of whether we’ve succeeded?

• Safety and lawfulness. Never charged with a crime. This speaks to finding community, developing social ties, knowing how to navigate perils. Far too many of our young people are enmeshed in the justice system.⁴

Why focus here?

• These are outcomes we truly value. Few parents have any idea what their child’s annual test results mean.⁵ Education officials routinely spin them to highlight the positives. Understandable. But unhelpful. Let’s keep our eyes on early adult outcomes that are important to families of all education levels, incomes, and political affiliations. We can form a new consensus that inspires desperately needed investments at a time when our schools are about to face tight budgets. Absent that consensus, I worry that the value proposition for funding our schools is fading.

• These outcomes are hard to game. School districts can inflate high school graduation rates, but they can’t do the same things with earnings, employment status, service records, or college attainment. Let’s stop measuring schools based on data they self-generate.

• These outcomes apply to a diverse array of school policy landscapes. Some states are shifting aggressively to universal education saving accounts (ESAs). Others have substantial numbers of charter schools. Some students spend time in public and private schools during their K-12 journeys. By focusing on a mid-20s finish line, we can maintain a common measure for all states that includes all young people raised in those jurisdictions, coast to coast.

• These outcomes can extend accountability to higher education. We have a crisis of confidence in college, which has become wildly expensive. Enrollments are down. But historically, colleges have escaped scrutiny for failure to support students or to prepare them for the workforce. Far too many young people scuffle around in some form of college for a few years after high school, only to emerge little better off than when they started. We’re spending too much for that outcome. If we focus on age 25, colleges will be squarely in the spotlight.

How do we start?

For beginners, we need Congress to pass a comprehensive education law that redefines our mission as continuing through early adulthood. Better yet, it can codify the ways multiple departments can collaborate on measurement, reporting, and oversight. Today, data sharing between high schools and colleges, for instance, is totally inadequate.

We also need to consider how schools and communities would execute this new education strategy through integration with other sectors, from health to employment. Clarifying responsibilities is essential. If everyone is accountable for education, it would be easy for no one to be accountable. I promise: I am not going to advocate for diluting the importance of basic academic skills.

That’s too much for us to discuss today. In months to come, we’ll tackle those questions and more. Until then, thanks for reading and thanks for all the outreach on this issue. It’s clear there is a burly appetite for a fresh approach. Keep the ideas coming!

1. Full data going back to 1967 available here.

2. Pew has a nice write-up on the delay of typical life milestones here.

3. Some states are in the process of making it even easier to graduate high school. New York will no longer require passage of its Regents exams. Massachusetts voters did something similar through a ballot question this November.

4. I would add that many marginalized young people are also at-risk of being the victim of a violent crime - and a better educational experience can reduce those odds.

5. If you are curious to learn more about this, Learning Heroes has done incredible research showing that the vast majority of parents think their children are performing at or above grade level - even when there are clear signals to the contrary.